Page 19 - EE Times Europe Magazine - June 2025

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Waymo’s Robotaxi Program: Progress and Potential

$347 million, compared with a projected $290 million for San bottom two bar charts show yearly revenue and cumulative revenue.
Francisco. Total Waymo ride revenue is projected to grow from Yearly rider-only miles are forecast to grow from 40.8 million miles
$125 million in 2024 to more than $1.3 billion in 2027. in 2024 to 324 million miles in 2027, for a CAGR of nearly 100%. Cumu-
The “other cities” category poses the most uncertainty, as there are lative rider-only miles may reach 663 million at year-end 2027.
many unknowns. This category may grow quickly and may be underes- These projections assume, however, that there will be no
timated here. Waymo-caused crashes with fatalities. Robotaxi-based fatalities will
happen sometime in the future. Fatality crashes for human drivers
SUMMARY happen about once per 80 million miles, based on 2023 NHTSA statis-
Waymo in the U.S. is the clear global leader in robotaxi deployments. tics. This includes distracted and DUI crashes. Hence, we do not have
Baidu’s Apollo Go robotaxi service, in China, is the closest competitor. statistically valid robotaxi crash data yet.
Apollo Go’s quarterly rides surpassed 1.1 million in Q1 2025, compared However, Waymo’s rider-only data shows better safety data than
with Waymo’s 2.4 million per quarter (200,000 per week in human drivers after 50 million miles, including airbag deployments,
February 2025). In Q2 2025, Waymo’s ride total may top 3 million, injury crashes, and police-reported crashes. We need Waymo to drive at
based on an estimated 250,000 per week in April 2025. least 600 million miles without fatal crashes to indicate that robotaxis
Waymo has been developing AVs since 2009. Figure 5 summa- are safer than cautious human drivers. Based on the above forecast
rizes Waymo’s history and trends and shows its three phases to reach scenario, this could happen in 2027.
robotaxi service operation. Self-driving testing was the primary activity Yearly revenue grew from $2 million in 2022 to $125 million in 2024.
from 2009 to 2020 and took place primarily in California and Arizona. Rapid growth is forecast over the next three years, with yearly revenue
Waymo has been cautious in driverless testing, with relatively few exceeding $1.3 billion in 2027. Cumulative revenue increased from
miles logged on the road, as simulation has been used extensively $2.7 million in 2022 to $148 million in 2024, and cumulative revenue is
to accumulate virtual miles. Waymo’s unique pod car, Firefly, had no estimated to top $1.2 billion in 2026 and surpass $2.5 billion in 2027.
driving controls, and its VMT numbers are included in the driverless Robotaxi market share by cities will change quickly in the next
miles tallied. The Firefly project operated for two years, from June 2015 three years, as summarized in Figure 7. The top three pie charts show
to July 2017, and used up to 50 AVs. rider-only VMT, while the bottom three pie charts show revenue share.
The robotaxi deployment stage started in the Phoenix suburbs in Three years of data are included: 2024, 2025, and 2027.
October 2020, with few miles traveled in the first two years. The pace Phoenix was the clear leader in rider-only VMT in 2024, with nearly a
accelerated in 2023 and 2024, however, and four cities were served in 50% share, which is expected to drop to under 36% in 2025 and 22% in
2024. 2027. Los Angeles is projected to lead in 2027, with about a 23% share.
2024 proved especially active, as total yearly rider-only miles jumped Revenue share by city will shift rapidly, as shown at the bottom
from 8 million-plus in 2023 to nearly 41 million in 2024. of Figure 7. San Francisco led the way in 2024, with more than 45%
Figure 6 summarizes Waymo’s rider-only miles and revenue forecast of total revenue. In 2027, Los Angeles is expected to become the
scenario from 2022 to 2027. The top two bar charts show yearly and front-runner, with 26.6%. San Francisco will follow, with 22%, and the
cumulative rider-only miles, with forecast scenarios through 2027. The “others” category will approach 21%.

Figure 5: Waymo has been developing AVs since 2009.

www.eetimes.eu | JUNE 2025