Page 17 - EE Times Europe Magazine - June 2025

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Waymo’s Robotaxi Program: Progress and Potential

WAYMO RIDER-ONLY MILES ESTIMATES AND FORECAST more than 74 million miles annually. Los Angeles is the
Based on Waymo’s public data, I created a spreadsheet to estimate second-most-populous city in the U.S. and has limited mass transit.
yearly rider-only miles for 2022, 2023, and 2024, with forecasts for 2025 Austin will grow quickly as the 11th-largest city and with a large land
to 2027 (Table 4). The data includes the four cities that are currently area.
operational and other cities that will be added in the next three years. The other cities that will get Waymo services are harder to estimate,
Table 4 shows the results. and achieving better estimates will require a couple of years of data.
Waymo’s annual rider-only miles grew from 830,000 in 2022 to more It is likely that Waymo will operate in at least five more cities by 2027
than 7.8 million miles in 2023, for growth of more than 900%. In 2024, and could reach another five cities by 2027. The 2027 estimate for other
rider-only VMT grew 390% and surpassed 40.7 million miles. cities is 68.5 million yearly miles, or 21% of the total 323 million miles
With Los Angeles and Austin in their early growth phase, the next in 2027.
three years will see continued expansion. Phoenix will expand at a Figure 3 summarizes Waymo’s yearly and cumulative rider-only
slower rate but could grow from more than 20 million miles in 2024 to miles by city and year.
nearly 71 million miles in 2027, for a compound annual growth rate of Phoenix is expected to remain in the lead in 2027, with more than
51%. San Francisco’s CAGR is estimated at 62%, with VMT approaching 189 million cumulative miles, or 28.5% of total VMT. San Francisco will
63 million miles in 2027. account for a projected 24.2% in 2027, with Los Angeles at 21.5%. Other
Los Angeles is projected to be Waymo’s largest market in 2027, with cities will account for 15.1% of the projected total VMT in 2027.

Table 4: Waymo Rider-Only Estimate: Yearly VMT (in thousands of miles)

Cities 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Los Angeles — — 5,165 20,690 42,410 74,720
San Francisco 97 1,030 14,740 33,330 48,330 62,830
Phoenix 903 2,480 20,310 37,500 52,500 70,880
Austin — — 555 5,630 17,440 47,090

Other cities — — — 7,200 24,480 68,540
All cities 830 7,830 40,670 104,350 185,170 323,570
Yearly growth — 901% 390% 156% 77.4% 74.7%

(Source: Various Waymo public documents; Estimates: Egil Juliussen, April 2025)

Figure 3: Cumulative rider-only miles are expected to triple this year.

www.eetimes.eu | JUNE 2025