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                                                                     Price, Range, Choice Are Keys to BEV Success

























                                                                                                                      IMAGE: SHUTTERSTOCK









           battery swapping that goes into effect in   LONGER BEV RANGE            new material. Battery recycling can create
           November.                           The cure for range anxiety is greater range,   battery supply chains in regions without
             China’s Nio is the leader in number of   and that is likely to occur when BEVs reach   natural resources. Sustainability and a lower
           vehicles using battery-swapping technology.   price parity with ICEVs after 2023. Using the   environmental and societal impact of battery
           Nio has about 200 battery-swapping stations   2030 price point of US$58/kWh versus US$137   production are also growing in importance.
           and has performed more than 2 million   in 2021, the typical BEV range would more   The good news is that there is much activ-
           battery swaps thus far. Nio BEVs can also use   than double, from 250 miles in 2021 to nearly    ity and growth in battery recycling, including
           battery-charging stations. Currently, China   600 miles in 2030 — assuming a similar    multiple startups, such as Redwood
           has more than 650 battery-swapping stations   battery cost.             Materials and Li-Cycle. J.R. Straubel,
           and may top 1,000 by the end of 2021.  Other factors are also increasing BEV range.   Redwood’s founder, was previously Tesla’s
              The question is whether battery swap-  Electric motors are becoming more efficient   CTO. Redwood is now partnering with Tesla
           ping will become viable in the U.S. and   via better magnets, improved chip technol-  for battery recycling. Li-Cycle is partnering
           Europe. Ample, a U.S. startup, is develop-  ogy for motor control, and upgraded battery   with GM and LG’s Ultium battery cell unit.
           ing a battery-swapping business model. In   management electronics and software.  Both companies are also recycling the waste
           Europe, Renault is considering using battery   Solar cells on top of BEVs may also extend   from battery production.
           exchanges for its future BEVs. The odds are   the range, as the generated electricity could   The BEV industry needs better long-term
           against battery swapping becoming a key   be used for heating, cooling, and other BEV   solutions for battery recycling. The best solu-
           technology in the U.S. and European main-  electronics.                 tion is manufacturing batteries with recycling
           stream markets, though its prospects look                               as a design criterion. That’s likely to happen
           better for BEVs used in taxis, robotaxis, and   BATTERY RECYCLING       in future battery generations.
           other fleet operations.             Recycling is of growing importance for all   BEVs have momentum and will become
                                               industries and will be crucial for BEVs. Cur-  the dominant technology sometime after
           MORE BEV VARIETY                    rently, the traditional industry is doing better   2030. Sales of ICEVs have peaked, based on a
           Auto buyers have a wide range of use cases   than BEVs in battery-recycling efforts. The   small but steady decline that started several
           with vastly different requirements. Many   recycling industry is growing quickly because   years ago. Multiple factors have driven
           BEV models must cover all vehicle segments   a flood of BEV batteries has reached the end   this trend, but more BEV technology and
           to satisfy all buyers’ needs. BEV models must   of the line. That flood will increase rapidly   market advances are needed to sustain its
           be available in large and small versions as   every year.               momentum.
           well as car, truck, SUV, and other vehicle   Last December, IHS Markit estimated that   Still uncertain is how quickly BEVs will
           segments. BEV model variety is slim so far,   500,000 tons (57 GWh) of batteries reached   become the leading auto technology. In the
           but planned introductions have grown sig-  their end-of-life point in 2020. That figure is   last two years, the BEV success timeline has
           nificantly in the past three years, with much   expected to rise to 1.2 million tons    accelerated as major auto OEMs perceive
           more variety in the works.          (121 GWh) in 2025, increasing to 3.5 million   BEVs becoming the future vehicle technology
             Sufficient model variety is likely to be   tons (350 GWh) in 2030 — a sevenfold   along with new transportation modes such as
           available around 2025 to meet most buyers’   increase in 10 years.      mobility-as-a-service.
           use scenarios. Major automakers will offer as   The advantages of battery recycling include   Autonomous-vehicle technology develop-
           many as 20 BEV models by 2025. A reliable   cost, supply chain security, and sustain-  ment and expanding AV use cases will also
           indicator is the current interest in BEV pickup   ability. Using recycled battery materials has   rely on BEVs but will pose additional technol-
           trucks from Ford, GM, Tesla, and Rivian.  the potential to be cheaper than acquiring   ogy and investment challenges. ■

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