Page 13 - EE Times Europe September 2021

EE|Times EUROPE 13

AV Complexity Explained

Volume deployment of robotaxis is a few
years later but could happen in a few cities,
according to some robotaxi hopefuls. Personal
AVs will be deployed significantly later than
robotaxis.
AI ADDRESSES COMPLEXITY
AV technology remains hard to bring to mar-
ket, but some use cases have less complexity
and are being deployed in limited volumes.
Regulations are emerging for simpler AV sce-
narios, and many companies will eventually
deploy what is allowed by regulation.
Teleoperation will be required in all AV
regulation, but it can also be used to remove
safety drivers for earlier deployment of some
use cases.
AV system cost is currently dominated
by pricey LiDAR, which will decline rapidly
over the next five years. That means excessive
driver. This category is also called middle-mile trucking. AV system cost will not be a showstopper after 2025.
If and when safety drivers are removed, teleoperation monitoring Early deployment of complex AV systems ultimately depends on AI
could be used for hub-to-hub trucking and robotaxis. Most AV regula- technology breakthroughs, which are impossible to forecast. If such
tions require teleoperation as a last resort for managing AVs if they are innovation occurs, potential users may not have to wait until the 2030s
stuck. Teleoperation may also become a more pervasive technology, for personal AVs. ■
ultimately replacing safety drivers.
Egil Juliussen is the former director of research for infotainment and
HIGH AV COMPLEXITY ADAS at IHS Automotive; an independent auto industry analyst; and EE
The figure on page 12 includes three use cases with high AV complex- Times’ “Egil’s Eye” columnist. This article originally appeared on EE Times.
ity. The hub-to-hub trucking use case has the lowest in this category,
followed by robotaxis. Personal AVs, still on the drawing board, would
also be categorized as high-complexity. Personal AVs are likely to benefit
from experience gleaned from robotaxi deployments across metro areas. m
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AV USE-CASE DEPLOYMENT
AV deployments will transition from simple to complex. The slightly
modified use-case chart on this page changes the x-axis to represent
a timeline. The AV use cases are positioned to reflect when on the time-
line they are likely to see meaningful usage.
In this scenario, sidewalk AVs have the highest deployment rate,
delivering meals, groceries, and other small packages in many cities.
Sidewalk AVs are also the least expensive products because they use
fewer sensors, have less weight, and travel at pedestrian speed. Bump-
ing into someone or something is relatively low-risk.
Goods-only AVs are represented by the Nuro delivery vehicle, which
is mostly in testing mode. Current advertising indicates that Nuro may
be poised for wider deployment. t with autonm us
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Robotaxis remain primarily in the testing stage with a safety driver.
Waymo has removed the safety driver in most of its Phoenix-area robo- t y led
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taxi testing. Several robotaxi operators have been allowed to charge for
their services in a few U.S. and Chinese cities.
Goods AVs with safety drivers are also delivering packages for last- or + L C A S S - O 0 P X E E S T R A E L D G 5 O N K S R W
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middle-mile operations between stores and/or warehouses. E K R S P S A E I D S E C E X A U N I Y S A V E T A F
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Fixed-route AVs such as EasyMile, Local Motors, and Navya have
undergone extensive testing in several countries. The pandemic
halted most testing, which had focused on transporting up to 12 pas-
sengers per ride. The recent ISO LSAD regulation covers this use case
and should kickstart fixed-route AV usage in the next few years.
Hub-to-hub autonomous truck usage with safety drivers is seeing
a rise in testing. Much of it includes transporting goods to paying
customers.
The remaining categories are much harder to deploy and will arrive u HgVtua
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Hub-to-hub autonomous truck deployment may occur around 2025.
www.eetimes.eu | SEPTEMBER 2021