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           Full AV Stacks: Five Years In, Does the Progress Measure Up?


                                                                                   ment of Motor Vehicles (Figure 2).
                                                                                     By law, anyone actively testing self-driving
                                                                                   cars on California roads must disclose both
                                                                                   the number of miles driven and the number
                                                                                   of miles driven between “disengagements” —
                                                                                   those fraught moments when a human driver
                                                                                   is forced to take the wheel. The DMV formally
                                                                                   defines disengagement as “deactivation of
                                                                                   the autonomous mode when a failure of the
                                                                                   autonomous technology is detected or when
                                                                                   the safe operation of the vehicle requires that
                                                                                   the autonomous-vehicle test driver disengage
                                                                                   the autonomous mode and take immediate
                                                                                   manual control of the vehicle.”
                                                                                     Some safety experts believe that counting
                                                                                   the miles between disengagements tends to
                                                                                   encourage test operators to minimize their
                                                                                   interventions, skewing the results and even
                                                                                   putting the test drivers at risk. “Disengage-
           Figure 2: Evaluating AVs by counting disengagements can encourage bad behavior on the   ment is the wrong metric for safe testing,”
           part of test drivers, some safety experts warn. (Image: IHS Markit)     said Phil Koopman, a Carnegie Mellon
                                                                                   professor and co-founder of Edge Case
                                                                                   Research.
           previously announced a plan to expand   ware platforms. And of course, there’s Tesla,   Nevertheless, AV disengagement reports
           its R&D program with Hyundai to develop   building its own full AV stack.  help the industry to peer into the readiness
           a self-driving platform. Apparently torn   The notables in this crowded bin are   level of autonomous vehicles, if not determine
           between two lovers, Hyundai has said its new   Waymo, Aurora, Argo AI, Intel/Mobil-  their safety per se, argued Juliussen.
           joint venture with Aptiv-nuTonomy won’t   eye, Nvidia, and Drive.ai. Last June, Apple   As of the end of last year, 65 companies had
           affect its affair with Aurora. But it has been   snatched up Drive.ai — a Mountain View,    test-driving permits from the California DMV.
           reluctant to kiss and tell, divulging few details   California-based startup founded in 2015.  Juliussen noted that while 567 vehicles were
           about what it is actually doing with Aurora.  Baidu’s Apollo is an open-source AV plat-  “qualified,” only 420 AVs were on the streets.
                                               form with a large ecosystem of developers.  A chart provided by Juliussen offers a plot
           OEM PLATFORM                                                            line showing changes in the annual disen-
           In the bin for OEM platforms, Juliussen listed   SCANT PUBLIC DATA      gagement numbers of each AV platform from
           GM-Cruise, Hyundai, VW, Ford-Argo, BMW,   The toughest question of all in the AV market   2015 to 2019. But he questioned the validity
           Mercedes-Benz–Bosch, Volvo, and Toyota. All   is whose AV software platform is solid, ready   of Baidu’s disengagement data. Baidu last
           have been testing their own autonomous vehi-  to go, and better than others. Given the lack   year reportedly drove 108,300 miles and told
           cles but vary in where they stand on AV stacks.  of disclosure from the developers, we turned   the California DMV that its vehicles went
             Car OEMs with their own AV software plat-  to another source of data that provides insight   18,000 miles between disengagements. Many
           forms include GM-Cruise (built on Cruise’s AV   into the AV landscape: the AV disengagement   industry watchers, including Juliussen, are
           software platform), Ford-Argo (based on Argo   reports produced by the California Depart-  skeptical because Baidu appears to be saying
           AI’s full AV stack), and Toyota (developed
           in-house). Volvo might have its own stack, but
           it announced previously a partnership with
           AImotive, a Budapest, Hungary-based soft-
           ware platform supplier (formerly AdasWorks).
             BMW is married to Intel/Mobileye’s AV
           software platform. Volkswagen, without
           its own AV software platform, last summer
           jilted Aurora and turned to Ford’s Argo.ai. As
           mentioned earlier, Hyundai has an apparently
           bigamous, possibly precarious bond with
           Aurora and Aptiv-nuTonomy.
           HIGH-TECH SOFTWARE PLATFORMS
           In the bin that includes the software-driven
           high-tech segment, Juliussen lists Waymo,
           Aurora, Argo AI, AImotive, and Drive.ai in
           the United States and an Asian contingent
           that covers Preferred Network in Japan, Baidu
           (with the Apollo project), AutoX, Momenta,
           WeRide, and Pony.ai.
             Leading AV chip suppliers Nvidia and
           Mobileye are also developing their own soft-  Figure 3: Companies are still targeting L4 readiness by 2022. (Image: IHS Markit)

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