Page 47 - EE Times Europe September 2021

EE|Times EUROPE 47

Robotic Goods Transportation Will Transform the 21st Century

chain is the early testbed for larger auton-
omous trucking operations. Many startups
have jumped on the bandwagon, along with
autonomous car pioneers. TuSimple is the
most advanced player in robotrucks, along
with Waymo, Plus, Pony, Ike/Nuro, Aurora,
Embark, Kodiak, and Pronto. This is indeed
the primary market application of robotic
goods transportation. Early scenarios from
the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development had put the transition to
robotrucks at around 2025. That year now
seems more of a starting point for opera-
tions — Yole Développement has pushed out
its forecast by five years — but the growth of
robotruck operations now appears certain,
and the consequences will be huge.
From the technology perspective, the facts
are reassuring: The technologies needed
for the transition of logistics to robotics
have been invented. Most of the technology
required comes from the industrial sector;
whether LiDAR, radar, cameras, or inertial
monitoring units (IMUs), they are all well
within reach of the innovators.
The limiting factor currently is the com-
puting power and associated software needed
to process all the data. It took 10 years for
Waymo to operate autonomous cars on the
open road. Moore’s Law is helping to cross the
threshold at which those robotic solutions can
be deployed, first in structured environments,
such as factories and warehouses, but soon
thereafter on our streets and highways. We
estimate that 10,000 robotrucks will be pro-
duced annually by 2026 and 73,000 per year
by 2031. The same trend will be apparent for
robotic delivery robots: 9,000 will be produced
per year by 2026 and 50,000 per year by 2031.
This acceleration of robotic goods transpor-
tation will create a US$3.1 billion opportunity
for LiDAR, a US$0.7 billion opportunity for
on some very physical technologies, such as It has expanded into all kinds of physical radar, US$1.7 billion for cameras, and
automated warehouses and gigantic autono- goods fabrication and transportation. US$1.8 billion for IMUs. In all, this is
mous port operations. The logistical backbone The first step, automating forklifts, started US$7.4 billion worth of sensors for robotic
of e-commerce is robot-based, without us decades ago and now includes what are goods transportation in 2031. This technolog-
realizing it, and this transition is still far from called automated guided vehicles (AGVs). The ical trend will be the stepping stone for many
being complete. Robotic trucking and robotic acquisition of Kiva Systems by Amazon in autonomous vehicle technology providers. By
deliveries are yet to come. 2012 morphed the Autonomous Mobile Robot 2026, robotic goods transportation will dom-
The upcoming logistics revolution is cur- (AMR) from a niche to a star robotic product inate the autonomy space, before robotics for
rently part of the e-commerce player strategy. dedicated to warehouses. In 2020, 200,000 human mobility take the lead in 2031.
Since they have the growth, they also have the units were produced, and the expected CAGR Robotics technology is changing the world
financial strength to move these technologies is 22% until 2026. The success of those small as we know it. Logistically, the 21st century
forward, and ultimately, they will drive the robots could lead to the use of small deliv- will be robotic or will not be at all. ■
retail incumbents into irrelevance. ery robots. Starship and Amazon have made
In our latest research report, “Sensors for significant moves in that space, and the possi- Pierre Cambou is a principal
Robotic Goods Transportation 2021,” Yole bility of using delivery drones now appears as analyst in the Photonics and
Développement investigated the numer- a credible business opportunity. Sensing Division at Yole
ous applications of robots to complete the Many campuses have seen the emergence Développement (Yole).
logistical chain. So far, industrial robotics is of Starship or Amazon robots, and Zipline has
growing at a CAGR of 13.6%, meaning factory demonstrated the viability of drone deliveries. Zine Bouhamri is a team lead
automation is growing 4× to 5× faster than In ports, much larger AGVs are being used to analyst, Imaging & Display
the worldwide GDP. The big takeaway is that load and unload ships in conjunction with Activities at Yole.
robotics is no longer limited to factories: autonomous cranes. This part of the logistics

www.eetimes.eu | SEPTEMBER 2021